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Autor Tema: Lov na oluje 9. i 10.8.2016. - SD i pomalo MT, WY i ND  (Pročitano 1746 puta)

Van mreže pavlovic

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Lov na oluje 9. i 10.8.2016. - SD i pomalo MT, WY i ND
« poslato: 12. Avgust 2016. u 21:20 »
IMG_5563a by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Pozzz iz Čikaga!

Iako sama postavka nije bila impresivna, odlučio sam da lovim ova dva dana. Uglavnom sam lovio na teritoriji Južne Dakote, uz kratak chase na ničijoj zemlji između Montane i Vajominga i u Severnoj Dakoti.

Iz Čikaga sam krenuo 8.8. u 20h, do svoje baze Belle Fourche sam imao 1570 km. Južna Dakota ima veliko ograničenje brzine (140 kmh), pa sam raniji dolazak iskoristio da posetim

ulaz u NP Badlands

IMG_5537-Pano by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

I Mt Rushmore

IMG_5539 by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

9.8.2016.

Prvi razvoj je bila elevated SC malih dimenzija, ali je poživela skoro 2h.





WY/MT state line, tiny but durable, high based SC, 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

WY/MT state line, tiny but durable, high based SC, 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Usput je davala i grad.

Hail + sun + rainbow + landscape = magic  MT/WY state line, 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Zbog loših i retkih puteva u Montani, odlučujem da presretnem veliku HP ćeliju u Južnoj Dakoti. Prvobitni plan je bio da odem do Camp Crook, ali sam se zaustavio u Bafalu.

Ćelija je davala grad do veličine teniske loptice





Buffalo SD - 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Buffalo SD - 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Kako se približavala lokaciji, polako je tranzitirala u bow, dok se meni sa JZ približavala malena LP SC, koja je kasnije prerasla u tipičnu "tail end Charlie" SC.





Buffalo SD, 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Buffalo SD - 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Supercell near Buffalo, SD - 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Mammatus, Buffalo SD, 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Bird, Buffalo SD 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Mammatus show near Buffalo, SD - 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Buffalo SD - 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Buffalo SD, 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Ćelija prolazi severnije i sada gledam u njenu zadnjicu, sve rotira, a po prvi put se čuje i grmljavina

Backside of a supercell . Intense colors, vivid lightning, and powerful motions. Buffalo, SD, 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Ova pukotina je RFD cut, ali nisam 100% siguran. U ovim trenucima me je zapljusnuo poprilično vruć vetar

RFD Cut? Buffalo SD, 8/9/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQw_YqfCp10" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQw_YqfCp10</a>



« Poslednja izmena: 14. Avgust 2016. u 02:30 pavlovic »

Van mreže pavlovic

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« Odgovor #1 poslato: 12. Avgust 2016. u 21:25 »
10.8.2016.

Prva ćelija koju sam presreo bila je elevated SC kod mesta Ellendale u Severnoj Dakoti. Davala je grad do veličine ping pong loptica

Elevated SC, Ellendale ND, 8/10/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr





Zatim provodim par sati u Aberdeen, Južna Dakota. Razvoji su počeli 30km istočno od grada, ali ćelije nisu mogle dugo da ostanu izlovane, pa su se gušile. A pokušavale su mučene da urade nešto.





Bristol SD, 8/10/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Bristol SD, 8/10/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Bristol SD, 8/10/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Za kraj par munja iz večernje linije kod mesta Leola, SD

Near Leola, SD. 8/10/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Near Leola SD, 8/10/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Near Leola SD, 8/10/2016. by Nikola Pavlovic, on Flickr

Sve u svemu lepa dva dana, zanimljivo je da nisam nigde sreo druge čejsere.

Van mreže Milosh

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« Odgovor #2 poslato: 12. Avgust 2016. u 21:54 »
Čekanje na reportažu se isplatilo, sjajno!  :thumbup: :worthy: :smartass:


padavine u februaru 2024:
Vračar - 4.3mm
Miljakovac 4.8mm
prosek - 43.5mm

padavine u martu 2024:
Vračar - 11.4mm
Miljakovac - 11.7mm
prosek - 48.7mm

Van mreže Bart

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« Odgovor #3 poslato: 12. Avgust 2016. u 22:13 »
Sta reci nego fantasticne slike  :) Moram da priznam da sam nekih 10ak min gledao ove tvoje slike u potpisu sto je link, mislim da je ovo treci ili cetvrti put da to radim, to sve govori :D

Van mreže Медо

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« Odgovor #4 poslato: 13. Avgust 2016. u 01:01 »
Павловићу, као и увек са уживањем гледам твоју репортажу, перфектно  :laie:

Van mreže pavlovic

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« Odgovor #5 poslato: 13. Avgust 2016. u 01:14 »
Hvala ljudi! Nadam se da uspevam da prenesem deo magije iz Aleje!

Ostao sam dužan video ludog, gotovo neprestanog sevanja iz squalla kod Aberdina u Južnoj Dakoti 10.8.2016.

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAKngEQqoKE" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAKngEQqoKE</a>

Sondaže, mada je sondaža u Aberdinu urađena pošto je prvi talas oluja prošao i pokupio dobar deo energije.





SPC outlooks



Citat
...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
   COVERAGE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND EAST AND NORTHEAST
   MONTANA THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  A MARGINAL RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST OVER A PORTION OF CENTRAL
   MINNESOTA TO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS
   WESTERN AND CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER WA/ORE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST
   THIS FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING WESTERN MT LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
   EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM AND IN THE WAKE
   OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
   THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO...HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN PLAINS REGION AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS DEVELOPS ACROSS
   THIS AREA.

   AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO TROUGH IS
   EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MN REACHING CENTRAL
   MN AND NORTHWEST WI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE TRAILING PORTION OF
   THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL...GENERALLY E-W...ACROSS NORTHERN SD
   AND EXTEND WESTWARD TO AN AREA OF CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NORTHEAST
   WY/SOUTHEAST MT REGION.  A WIND SHIFT SHOULD EXTEND WESTWARD FROM
   THIS LEE LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN MT.  PORTIONS OF THE FRONT/WIND SHIFT
   IN NORTHERN SD TO SOUTHERN MT MAY ADVANCE NORTHWARD SOME THIS
   EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE WA/ORE CLOSED LOW...WHILE A COLD
   FRONT MOVES FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   TONIGHT.

   ...ND/SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
   GIVEN THE EXPECTED HEIGHT RISES WITH THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS
   THIS REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND A CAPPING
   INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML PLUME...STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS
   EXPECTED TO PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN
   VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS INTO SD TODAY...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
   AROUND 70 F /CURRENTLY RESIDING IN KS TO PARTS OF NEB/ POTENTIALLY
   REACHING NORTHERN SD BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THESE AND THE
   AFOREMENTIONED THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCAPE OF 2000-2500
   J/KG AND PERHAPS UP TO 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  VERTICALLY
   VEERING WINDS...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND STRAIGHT
   HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH THE
   STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL...SOME
   EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING TO 40-45 KT INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD
   SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN
   THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.  ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO ND AS THE LLJ AUGMENTS CONVERGENCE...WITH
   STORMS NORTH OF THE STALLED/WARM FRONT BEING PRIMARILY ELEVATED WITH
   A THREAT FOR HAIL.



Citat
...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.  LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH A
   TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH
   DAKOTA...NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  A FEW
   STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND/OR EARLY EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE NORTHERN ROCKIES CLOSED LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
   TRACK FROM WESTERN MT TO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD...WITH A BAND OF SOUTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE
   GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MN/NORTHERN WI.  THIS
   PRIMARY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LAG THE CONVECTION
   THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK REGION...WITH THE PRIMARY
   FORCING MECHANISM FOR DEEP CONVECTION BEING LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION.  A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
   FROM CENTRAL MN WESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE ND/SD BORDER.  A LEE
   CYCLONE SHOULD BE LOCATED IN NORTHWEST SD AT 12Z TODAY AND WILL
   TRACK EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT...REACHING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
   THE SD/ND BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND INTO
   EASTERN ND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

   ...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   AN MCS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINGERING SEVERE-WEATHER
   THREAT...WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF DAY 1 ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
   AND PART OF NORTHERN MN...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY BE PRESENT
   ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND.  NCEP-HRRR-PARALLEL MODEL
   SUGGESTS THIS EARLY PERIOD CONVECTION WILL ADVANCE EAST AND WEAKEN
   AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST MN AND
   NORTHWEST WI.

   MEANWHILE...AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD ATTENDANT TO THE EARLY DAY
   MCS...AND NEW ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN WAA NORTH OF THE
   WARM FRONT THIS MORNING SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING AND THE
   NORTHWARD EXTENT FOR SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO SUPPORT A
   SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT.  GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
   THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE WILL BE LOCATED NEAR
   AND JUST NORTH OF THE EXPECTED PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE
   EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL MN TODAY.  WHILE STORMS MAY CONTINUE
   WITHIN THE WAA REGIME NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...SOME OF THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME SURFACE BASED NEAR THE WARM FRONT /EAST OF
   THE SURFACE LOW/ THIS AFTERNOON WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING OF A
   MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY.
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   WITHIN A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
   STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  STORMS THAT
   DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE AN ADDED THREAT FOR A TORNADO
   OR TWO...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.

   ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT BY
   LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO
   MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY.  STORM POTENTIAL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
   SHOULD TEND TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT...THOUGH SURFACE
   TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 100 F COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
   STORMS TO FORM AROUND PEAK HEATING.  OTHERWISE...A STRENGTHENING
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WAA FOR
   ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST...WITH
   ONE OR TWO MCS/S DEVELOPING INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT
   PRODUCING A PRIMARY THREAT OF STRONG AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

Van mreže ocelot

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« Odgovor #6 poslato: 14. Avgust 2016. u 20:44 »
fenomenalne fotografije, o samim formacijama tek da ne pričam   :thumbup: