Meteorološki Forum

Vreme => Ciklon po ciklon => Temu započeo: Dejo 07. Jul 2014. u 22:43

Naslov: Ciklon "Cvetko", 08 - 12. jul 2014.
Poruka od: Dejo 07. Jul 2014. u 22:43

Novi ciklon "Cvetko" formiraće se sutra iznad Đenovskog zaliva. Našim krajevima donosiće nestabilno vreme narednih 5 dana.

Očekivana sinoptička situacija 08.07.2014 u 12h
(http://i59.tinypic.com/qqd0cw.jpg)

Animacija kretanja ciklona
(http://i57.tinypic.com/5apenk.jpg)

Estofex prognoza prvog dana daje level 2 za veći deo Srbije
(http://i60.tinypic.com/24lqvdc.jpg)

A level 2 was issued for parts of Serbia mainly for (very) large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent for excessive precipitation.

Citat

... Serbia and surrounding area ...

A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to be advected over the region, originating from N Africa. Degree of CAPE values is somewhat uncertain attm, but it seems that the best low level moisture should exist over Serbia, S Hungary and W Romania, where CAPE values around 1000 J/kg may be realised. Models generally diverge on the arrival of the enhanced mid-level flow towards the afternoon and evening and thus also on the degree of the vertical wind shear. Still, it seems that especially region should see 15 - 20 m/s of DLS, increasing southwards and also towards the evening.

Storm initiation is uncertain attm, but if storms manage to form (especially towards the evening as short-wave trough arrives), area may see a distinct threat of supercellular convection capable of (very) large hail and severe wind gusts. Storm clustering towards the evening may enhance the excessive precipitation threat as well. A low end Lvl 2 is issued for a small area where the best CAPE / shear overlap is forecast.

CAPE 08.07.2014 u 14h
U  Vojvodini i do 2000J/kg
(http://i57.tinypic.com/346kz9e.jpg)

Verovatnoća  superćelije
(http://i62.tinypic.com/dpzl3s.jpg)

Smicanje i do 20m/s na istoku
(http://i59.tinypic.com/2whjz0g.jpg)

Očekivana količina padavina narednih 5 dana, mada sad nešto najmanje verujem u ovu procenu jer će padavine u većini dana biti konvektivnog porekla, svakako najviše padavine se očekuje u Severnoj Italiji, Sloveniji  i Austriji...

(http://i59.tinypic.com/whcu1y.jpg)

Naslov: Odg: Ciklon "Cvetko", 08 - 12. jul 2014.
Poruka od: Dejo 13. Jul 2014. u 09:04

Najviše padavina palo je u severnoj polovini Vojvodine od 35-50mm, dok se od ostalih mesta mogu izdvojiti samo Ćuprija i bliža okolina sa 20-25mm.

(http://i60.tinypic.com/2h2qil3.jpg)

Prostorni raspored padavina

(http://i60.tinypic.com/311l3fb.jpg)