Novi ciklon "Cvetko" formiraće se sutra iznad Đenovskog zaliva. Našim krajevima donosiće nestabilno vreme narednih 5 dana.
Očekivana sinoptička situacija 08.07.2014 u 12h
Animacija kretanja ciklona
Estofex prognoza prvog dana daje level 2 za veći deo Srbije
A level 2 was issued for parts of Serbia mainly for (very) large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent for excessive precipitation.
... Serbia and surrounding area ...
A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is forecast to be advected over the region, originating from N Africa. Degree of CAPE values is somewhat uncertain attm, but it seems that the best low level moisture should exist over Serbia, S Hungary and W Romania, where CAPE values around 1000 J/kg may be realised. Models generally diverge on the arrival of the enhanced mid-level flow towards the afternoon and evening and thus also on the degree of the vertical wind shear. Still, it seems that especially region should see 15 - 20 m/s of DLS, increasing southwards and also towards the evening.
Storm initiation is uncertain attm, but if storms manage to form (especially towards the evening as short-wave trough arrives), area may see a distinct threat of supercellular convection capable of (very) large hail and severe wind gusts. Storm clustering towards the evening may enhance the excessive precipitation threat as well. A low end Lvl 2 is issued for a small area where the best CAPE / shear overlap is forecast.
CAPE 08.07.2014 u 14h
U Vojvodini i do 2000J/kg
Verovatnoća superćelije
Smicanje i do 20m/s na istoku
Očekivana količina padavina narednih 5 dana, mada sad nešto najmanje verujem u ovu procenu jer će padavine u većini dana biti konvektivnog porekla, svakako najviše padavine se očekuje u Severnoj Italiji, Sloveniji i Austriji...
