Evo Stefano ,da utvrdimo kakve su šanse
Prvenstveno će šansa za grmljavinu postajati kasno popodne i uveče,ali i tokom noći
Očekivane padavine
PCS indeks
ACI indeks
K indeks
RHMZ Srbije
Облачно, местимично с кишом, могући су локални пљускови праћени грмљавином.
I na kraju ESTOFEX
... Croatia, parts of Slovenia and Hungary ...
The time-frame of interest will be after sunset, which is not the best timing in the winter time. However, unseasonably warm and moist air spreads eastwards beneath cooling mid-levels. The model trend again (similar to the 25th event) indicates more robust CAPE from run to run, but still instability is yet too marginal for a more widespread severe risk. SBCAPE is bound to the theta-e tongue and this area was highlighted by a level 1. Futher to the east/northeast, an extensive are with MUCAPE builds eastwards, as mid-level lapse rates steepen. Speed and directional shear at all levels would be sufficient for organized thunderstorms with all facets of severe, but later model data will be evaluated, before expanding the level area eastwards. Another point of concern is the warm EL forecast in the level 1 area with decreasing values eastwards, so electrified convection may be quite limited. However, LL CAPE and very strong LL shear overlap, so any stronger updraft may pose a severe risk (e.g. downward momentum of 30m/s at 850hPa).
